Technological forecasts are often surprisingly prescient in terms of predicting that something was possible & desirable and what they predict eventually happens; but they are far less successful at predicting the timing, and almost always fail, with the success (and riches) going to another. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. : Use of the Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior,. Many of these models may require transients much too long to be practical in a well test, but may be quite effective for analysis of production data (Fig. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. Its a weird perspective to take, but we can think of other technologies which may be like this. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. Michie went on to point out that in a previous case, Charles Babbage, his work was foredoomed by it being an unripe time due to hardware limitations and represented a complete waste of time & money17. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. . Err Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. When you reflect on your thoughts and actions, you gradually grow as a person. o Activity Report: Technology and Past ( interviews with elders) o Nature's Longest Threads by Janaki. Why is their knowledge so useless? He could spot the points where the enemys line was broken, and the reverse salients in his own. As we discussed earlier, optogenetics and expansion microscopy both begin from papers from other fields, some of which are quite old and which mostly had been ignored by other people. The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. The road to wisdom?Well, its plain We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. Theyd been known for decades. He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. They are not important problems because we do not have an attack. but less Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. There is no right or wrong answer. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things. More importantly, he showed me what differentiated quartz-gauge data looked like. Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. 35 years. Be still. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. This is especially difficult as . Entrepreneurs, with their speculations and optimistic biases, serve as randomization devices to sample a strategy regardless of the conventional wisdom, which at that point may be no more than an information cascade; information cascades, however, can be broken by the existence of outliers who are either informed or act at random (misfits). Balakrishnan and B V Sreekantan. After all, nonobvious ideas that could in fact become big businesses are by definition nonobvious. Suppose the home robotic growth were concentrated in a single private company which exploded into the billions of annual revenue and took away the market share of all the others, forcing them to go bankrupt or merge or shrink. Such targeted research efforts can have disproprotionate payoffs and lead to sudden breakthroughs as the enemys frontline collapses. At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. Huh. He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. Technology now is considered as a subject and profession in the learning and career environment. Batteries is a big one.. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. We continued to be in desperate financial trouble, particularly with our suppliers. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. A further application of criterion 4 arises if theoretical infeasibility is demonstratedBut it is well to look on such negative proofs with caution. There were people playing around with controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). And you know what? Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Sunday Reflection: The Blessing of God's Timing. Indeed, this would have around the Japanese boondoggle the Fifth Generation Project (note that despite Japans reputed prowess at robotics, it is not Japans robots who went into Fukushima / flying around the Middle East / revolutionizing agriculture and construction). When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? By and large, oil has only two purposes. The productivity boost expected from electric dynamos was slow to materialise, The evolution of large technological systems, #326, Part II. It sounds like Facebook! : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. I ended up doing more work in Japan than anything else because Japan in general is so tech-smitten and obsessed that they just love it [VR]. Santos, Ma.Miguela B. BSBA - FM2 Science,Technology and Society Reflection: Timing your Technology A firm's ability to maintain an advantage in market value depends on whether investors perceive that the rate of cash flow growth will be sustained. With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. Technology is a subject that you will encounter in the school process starting from elementary till college. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. On phones! After10 hours of deliberation, he was acquitted. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? Our signature selling point will be that it takes fewer lines of code to set up, so programmers will like us., LinkedIn: Well do social networking like has been already patented by SixDegrees.com, forcing us to buy their patent., Slack: IRC+email but infinitely slower & more locked in. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. But the value of Pets.com stock still went to ~$0. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? 2. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered, ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010, eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials, The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion, Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?, minor technical glitches derailed vital deals, borrowed money from friends to pay his rent, ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine, Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. However, the pressure data showed the same oscillatory behavior. Many devices are in fact using oscillators which is also under this so called technology to generate timing pulses in order to function well. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. These areas shared a number of generic problems and solutions, for example, the need to isolate a substance (natural product, synthetic product, body substance) in chemically pure form, the need to synthesize the substance and to do so economically if it was to go on the market, and the need for pharmacological, chemotherapeutic, toxicological, and clinical testing of the substance. One of the ideas is to have sort of a SWAT team of people who go around looking for how to connect the dots all day long in these serendipitous ways. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? How do you time your startup? Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. Where does this leave us? These days you put some kind of camera on the head and look around in the room and it just calculates where you arethe headsets are self-sufficient instead of relying on an external reference infrastructure. From the Paleolithic times to the Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us. They can stretch out to around 250 ms (1/4 second) or so, at which point reverberation takes over. On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg was not the first and only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg; many people made social networking fortunes before himmaybe Orkut didnt make its Google inventor a fortune, but you can bet that MySpaces DeWolfe and Anderson did well. He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. Reflection Desktop is terminal emulation software. This is a very firms, technology is one of the main forces powerful tool for the assessment of technol- important question of strat- which operates in the business arena. Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year? Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. My timing on the technical front could not have been better. We managed to get a taste of the experience with something called the Power GloveSony actually brought out a little near-eye display called Virtual Boy; not very good, but they gave it their best shot. Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. What has changed since then is, no doubt, some improvements in the mathematics, but largely, I think wed all agree, better compute power and a lot more data. January 19, 2020. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. PHILIPPINE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY. Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. 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