n$L{Z. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 google_ad_width = 160; His freelance Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. monthly forecasts become more accurate. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. 04:12 - Source: CNN Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. google_color_link = "0000FF"; To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). google_color_url = "426C95"; The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. levels. Much of that water. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. The lake is set to reach. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Water managers, who . Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. 15 Day Weather Forecast The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. What's the weather forecast for 2050? A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; But it is concerning. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. hb```)," The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Flight Center. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. endstream endobj startxref The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. By Leia Larsen. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. 04:18 . Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast //-->, Printable Version A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. WEco is funded by multiple donors. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. We are 37% through the Water Year. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. It can store about five times the average annual flow. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Credit: Alex Hager. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Detailed Map of Powell Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. google_ad_height = 600; //-->, Printable Version Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Lake Powell